Jean-Baptiste Gallopin and Nizar Manek
October 2020, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (18 pages)
Executive summary
Sudan is navigating a difficult political transition. In 2019, a revolutionary uprising brought on by an economic crisis and decades of authoritarian rule prompted a military coup against then President Omar al-Bashir. In a power sharing agreement sealed in August 2019, the political opposition agreed to share power with the generals who overthrew Bashir.
Regime change in Sudan took place at a momentous time for the country’s neighborhood. Politics in the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf – long considered distinct strategic regions – have become increasingly entangled. In parallel, growing inter-state competition and a predominance of bilateralism have become defining facts of regional interactions.
In the unsettled balance of power of the region, the direction of the Sudanese transition and the foreign orientation of the transitional regime have become stakes for the power plays of outside powers. Sudanese factions have sought the support of, and faced pressure from, regional states and global powers which are seeking to shape Sudan’s positions in salient issues – in negotiations over Nile waters, on the question of Arab normalization with Israel, and also in the rivalries pitting Iran, Turkey and Qatar against the so-called “Arab Troika” (the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Egypt).
Regional intervention decisively shaped the initial direction of Sudan’s transition in 2019, when Saudi Arabia and the UAE provided critical support to the junta that overthrew Omar al-Bashir, allowing it to resist popular demands for civilian rule and accountability for the crimes of Bashir’s government. Sudan now stands firmly in the Arab Troika’s orbit.
But the demands of the Arab Troika and those of the United States have caused tensions among the components of Sudan’s transitional authorities and placed obstacles on the country’s path to economic recovery. In October, President Donald Trump finally announced he will ask Congress to lift the State Sponsor of Terrorism (SST) Designation which has hampered economic normalization between Sudan and Western countries, but Sudan’s economy has now collapsed and the prospects for further political destabilization are rising.
https://www.kas.de/en/web/poldimed/single-title/-/content/spotlight-on-sudan-sudan-s-international-relations-in-regime-change