Africa Confidential, Vol 60 No 22, 7 November 2019
ETHIOPIA
The government is set to propose two new medium-range economic plans to parliament after the elections slated for May 2020, say sources with knowledge of work in the Prime Minister's Macroeconomic Committee, Abiy Ahmed's central economic policy organ. The new five- and ten-year plans, which are intended to ease conditions for the private sector, are being drafted by the National Planning Commission. They are expected to go to parliament next September.
Research by the Seoul-based Korean Development Institute and local counterparts for the plans began in 2018 under Abiy's predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn. Details are scarce but the drafts so far focus on increased private sector participation in the economy, better access to private finance, insurance, an opening up of the logistics sector, and plans to add value to mined minerals instead of solely exporting them to generate foreign exchange.
(372 words)
https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/12787/Prize_fight
Two-track talks on the grand dam
Africa Confidential, Vol 60 No 22, 7 November 2019
EGYPT/ETHIOPIA/SUDAN
Sisi wants Trump's help to break the impasse with Ethiopia over the Nile dam. They meet in Washington but Addis insists nothing will change
Two negotiating tracks are emerging over the potential flashpoint between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the effects of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the flow of the Nile. The first is the talks in the United States convened by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set for 6 November. The meeting follows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi's request to President Donald Trump to mediate in the dispute, but Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry insists the talks cannot be called 'mediation' because Ethiopia will merely be reasserting its earlier position.
The other track is the sixth of nine planned meetings of a trilateral scientific group (the third party is Sudan), which is due to take place by the middle of this month in Addis Ababa. The group's work slowed to a standstill last September when Egypt refused to sign off on some meeting minutes and then sought meditation from the US, World Bank, European Union, and Russia.
(570 words)
https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/12789/Two-track_talks_on_the_grand_dam
Nile Powers Set New Deadline to End Dam Spat After Trump Meeting
By Nizar Manek, November 7 2019
(Bloomberg) --
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan set a Jan. 15 deadline to reach an agreement on the filling and operation of a giant Ethiopian dam on a Nile tributary after a U.S.-brokered meeting sought to ease rising tensions.
The commitment followed the U.S.’s first significant intervention in the long-running dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which has put two of Washington’s most prominent African allies at odds over the use of crucial freshwater supplies.
(524 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-06/trump-holds-talks-over-ethiopian-dam-after-negotiations-stalled
Ethiopia Fertilizer Plant Revival Plan Hits Snag
By Nizar Manek, November 6 2019
(Bloomberg) --
Ethiopia received only one proposal for a joint venture to revive a state-owned fertilizer manufacturing complex, Fana Broadcasting Corp. reported, a blow to the nation’s plans to liberalize parts of the tightly controlled economy.
While seven companies had shown interest, four were disqualified and only one submitted plans, according to the ruling-party affiliated broadcaster. Ethiopian law prohibits awarding a contract when only one proposal is received. The stalled Yayu Fertilizer Complex was meant to comprise a factory, a 90-megawatt power station and a coal mine to supply the plant.
(193 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/OHTESG6S972O
Ethiopia Awaits Proposals for Revival of Fertilizer Complex
By Nizar Manek, November 1 2019
European, Asian firms interested in joint venture with state
Initial contract awarded to controversial military-linked firm
(Bloomberg) --
Ethiopia is awaiting proposals from European and Asian companies for a joint venture intended to oversee the revival of a stalled fertilizer complex.
The unidentified firms have expressed interest in developing the Yayu Fertilizer Complex comprising a fertilizer plant, a 90-megawatt thermal power station and coal mine to supply the plant, according to Beyene Gebremeskel, the director-general of the Public Enterprises Holding and Administration Agency. “The second step is screening by asking them to provide project proposals,” Beyene said. “It’s a partnership, not selling.”
(349 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/ethiopia-awaits-proposals-for-revival-of-fertilizer-complex
U.S. Treasury Calls Ethiopia, Egypt and World Bank to Nile Talks
By Nizar Manek, October 30 2019
Both African nations say they’re ready for Nov. 6 meeting
Global powers stepping up efforts to calm dispute over dam
(Bloomberg) --
The U.S. Treasury invited Ethiopia and Egypt for talks, part of growing international efforts to quell a dispute over a giant dam that’s being built on the Nile River.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is convening the meeting in Washington, which the World Bank’s president will attend if the two African countries and mutual neighbor Sudan also participate, a spokesperson for the lender said Thursday. Ethiopia and Egypt’s foreign ministries have both said they’d accepted U.S. invitations for Nov. 6 talks.
(254 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/u-s-treasury-calls-ethiopia-egypt-to-nile-talks-minister-says
Ethiopia Military-Linked Group Seeks Asset Sales, Debt Write-Off
By Nizar Manek, October 25 2019
METEC has lost control of some major infrastructure projects
State group holds equivalent of 9% of Ethiopia’s external debt
(Bloomberg) --
An Ethiopian military-linked conglomerate is valuing its assets ahead of the potential privatization of parts of the company while seeking to write off 70 billion birr ($2.4 billion) of debt.
Metals & Engineering Corp. hired valuers to assess its businesses operating in industries from hi-tech engineering to automotive, Brigadier General Ahmed Hamza, the director general, said in an interview. Soon, “we will know the value of METEC,” he said. “After that, we will go for privatization” or joint ventures.
(450 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-25/ethiopia-military-linked-group-seeks-asset-sales-debt-write-off
Ethiopia’s Abiy Says Talks With Egypt Can Resolve Nile Dispute
By Nizar Manek, October 24 2019
Egypt, Ethiopia to keep talking on latter’s showpiece project
World’s longest river gives almost all of Egypt’s fresh water
(Bloomberg) --
Egypt and Ethiopia agreed Thursday to resume talks over a giant Nile dam and reach a deal on sharing the vital waters, downplaying a recent escalation of tensions.
Both nations are willing “to collaborate on the project in a manner that will benefit the two sides,” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told local media, shortly after meeting Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi on the sidelines of a Russia-Africa summit.
(599 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-24/ethiopia-s-abiy-says-talks-with-egypt-can-resolve-nile-dispute
Ethiopia Probes Alleged Dam Misspending That Slowed Construction
By Nizar Manek, October 23 2019
Former contractor Metec says some of funds unaccounted for
Showpiece GERD is a source of rising tensions with Egypt
(Bloomberg) --
Ethiopian authorities are probing missing funds a military contractor already accused of graft was meant to spend on a showpiece dam on a Nile tributary that’s raised tensions with Egypt.
Military-linked Metals & Engineering Corp., which was replaced as a contractor on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in August 2018, said it could only account for spending of 9 billion birr ($305 million) of the 16 billion birr it received from a state-owned power company for mechanical and structural works. Work on the project on the Blue Nile is running about five years late, with Ethiopia planning to finish it in 2023.
(305 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-23/ethiopia-probes-alleged-dam-misspending-that-slowed-construction
Revolutionary Democracy Is Passé to Ethiopia's Ruling Party
By Nizar Manek, October 19 2019
Change in alliance’s structure to mirror ethnic representation
Horn of Africa nation is headed for an election next year
(Bloomberg) --
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition plans to restructure and amend decision-making to become more democratic as it prepares for elections scheduled for next year, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s part of the alliance said.
The Oromo Democratic Party or ODP, which together with three other ethnically-based parties and five affiliated regional parties constitute the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, announced the plan Friday. The EPRDF, a former rebel movement with Marxist-Leninist roots, must replace its three-decade ideology of “revolutionary democracy” as it’s divisive and “undemocratic,” according to the ODP.
(263 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-18/ethiopia-ruling-coalition-to-shake-up-decision-making-structures
Ethiopia May Use Privatisation Funds to Repay State Lenders
By Nizar Manek, October 17 2019
Government selling off part of telecoms giant, sugar assets
State enterprises took Ethiopia government-guaranteed loans
(Bloomberg) --
Ethiopia may use some of the proceeds from part-privatizing state companies to pay off government-guaranteed debts issued by lenders including the largest state bank by assets.
Selling sugar factories and a stake in the Horn of Africa country’s telecommunications monopoly would enable the government to recapitalize state-owned enterprises so they can repay borrowings, National Bank of Ethiopia Governor Yinager Dessie said in an interview.
(435 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-17/ethiopia-may-use-privatisation-proceeds-to-repay-state-lenders
Ethiopia Confident of $1 Billion From World Bank for New Program
By Nizar Manek, October 15 2019
(Bloomberg)—
Ethiopia’s central bank is confident the country will receive a further $1 billion from the World Bank over the next fiscal year after the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a new, three-year economic program.
The Washington-based lender in October last year approved $1.2 billion for the government’s agenda to liberalize one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and attract more foreign capital. In September, the government unveiled its latest plan, known as Homegrown Economic Reform.
(178 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-15/ethiopia-confident-of-1-billion-from-world-bank-for-new-program
Ethiopia Could Sell Majority Stake in State Telecom Monopoly
By Nizar Manek and John Bowker, October 9 2019
Horn of Africa country plans an initial 49% sale next year
Two new licenses to be auctioned next year, more could follow
Ethiopia may give up majority control over its telecommunications monopoly in a second phase of privatization once it’s sold 49% of the company next year.
The government could also issue more mobile-phone network licenses over the long term beyond the two already planned for March 2020, Balcha Reba, director-general at the Ethiopian Communications Authority, said in an interview in Addis Ababa.
(411 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/ethiopia-could-sell-majority-stake-in-state-telecom-monopoly
Ethiopia Targets Inflation, Illegal Trade for Fiscal 2019-20
By Nizar Manek, October 7 2019
(Bloomberg) --
Ethiopia has identified controlling inflation, curbing illegal trade and increasing agricultural production as the priorities for the fiscal year that began in July, according to President Sahle-Work Zewde.
The focus on agriculture will be irrigation, Sahle-Work said in a televised address in parliament. The Horn of Africa nation harvested 316 million quintals of food in the 2018-19 production season, achieving 78% of its target, while importing wheat consumed scarce foreign currency, she said. A quintal is equal to 100 kilograms (220 pounds).
(109 words)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/terminal/OHTESG6S972O
Rushing to the ballot box
Africa Confidential, Vol 60 No 19, 27 September 2019
ETHIOPIA
Abiy is gambling that he can win an election with a unified coalition, but the campaign could provoke more factionalism
Ethiopia's strained ruling coalition has pledged to hold national elections on time next year and is set to take advantage of the lack of preparation by a recently – and only relatively – unshackled opposition. That could well lead to another thumping victory, particularly with charismatic Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the helm.
(1,700 words)
https://www.africa-confidential.com/article-preview/id/12754/Rushing_to_the_ballot_box